Important Ripple v SEC Developments, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Swings, and More: Bits Recap June 17

TL;DR

Bitcoin’s price has been on a downtrend lately, but indicators like negative exchange netflow and a declining MVRV ratio suggest a potential bullish reversal.
The SEC reduced its penalty demand to $102.6 million from $2 billion in its ongoing legal battle with Ripple, while the company argues for a maximum fine of $10 million.
Analysts predict a significant rebound for Dogecoin, with potential price increases to $0.22 and even over $12, driven by bullish patterns and key resistance levels.

The Calm Before the Storm for BTC?

The primary cryptocurrency passed through severe turbulence last week caused by the latest US CPI report and the Fed’s consecutive decision to keep interest rates unchanged. BTC’s price first climbed to approximately $70,000 (per CoinGecko’s data) after inflation in the US came lower than expected for May. However, it dipped to almost $66,000 after the FOMC meeting.

The downtrend continued in the following days, with BTC plunging to as low as $65,000 on June 15. It later recovered to the $66,000-$66,500 range, where it has consolidated recently.

Despite being down 5% on a weekly scale, several metrics suggest that the asset might be facing better days ahead. For starters, BTC’s exchange netflow has been mostly negative in the last seven days. The move indicates a shift from centralized platforms to self-custody methods, which is considered bullish since it reduces the immediate selling pressure. 

Another factor worth observing is BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV). The metric helps traders determine whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued based on its total market capitalization and the aggregate cost basis of the supply.

A high ratio indicates that a price correction might be imminent, while the opposite scenario signals about a potential buying opportunity. Data shows that MVRV has been on a downfall in the past month, currently standing at 2.18.

Ripple v SEC

The legal battle between the entities has been ongoing for over three years, with both parties recently clashing over the size of Ripple’s potential penalty.

Initially, the SEC sought a $2 billion fine on the company, alleging it of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling its XRP token. Ripple did not agree with the idea, insisting that its fine should not exceed $10 million. It compared its case with the SEC with the one between the agency and Terraform Labs, saying allegations of fraud are only present in the second lawsuit.

Recall that the defunct crypto firm recently agreed to pay a $4.47 billion fine for its fraudulent activity. The amount includes $3.6 billion in disgorgement, $466 million in prejudgment interest, and a $420 million civil penalty.

The regulator responded to Ripple’s request, claiming a $102.6 million penalty is more appropriate. It also stated that the analogy with Terraform Labs is “not an apples-to-apples comparison.”

“Ripple avoids comparing the Terraform settlement’s penalty to the gross profit of the violative conduct. That ratio ($420 million/$3.587 billion) is significantly higher: 11.7%. Applying it to the $876.3 million in gross profits, the SEC here asks the Court to disgorge, which results in a much larger figure, a $102.6 million penalty, than the $10 million ceiling Ripple insists on.”

Those willing to learn more about the lawsuit between America’s securities regulator and Ripple and its potential impact on XRP’s price, please take a look at our video below:

DOGE Predictions

Last but not least, we will touch upon Dogecoin (the largest meme coin in terms of market capitalization). Similar to the majority of assets in the market, DOGE is deep in the red on a weekly scale. However, some analysts expect a rebound in the near future.

The X user CryptoJack thinks the asset’s price could soar by 70% to as high as $0.22 should it break out from a certain descending pattern. 

Trader Tardigrade speculated, too, claiming that DOGE has been tracking a bullish parallel channel, which might result in the price surging to over $12. The analyst highlighted the $1.40 resistance level, suggesting it could be reached sometime next year.

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